IBM crashes 25%, yet the indices still rose

Today's Market

On the 14th (local time) the Nasdaq rose +0.9%, the S&P 500 +0.4%, and the Dow finished flat. A softer CPI and bank earnings lifted risk appetite; IBM was the lone plunge.

• A softer June CPI and the start of bank earnings season improved risk appetite, with VIX easing to 16.50

• Chips and SaaS drove the gains across the tape

• IBM, though, cratered 25% on a weak Q2

Market Data

S&P 500

7,543.59

▲0.38%

NASDAQ

26,107.01

▲0.90%

DOW

52,508.27

▲0.02%

VIX

16.50

▼3.85%

Sector Heat Map

SPY benchmark + 11 GICS sectors · 1-day

S&P 500 SPY +0.36%	Technology XLK +1.29%	Comm. Svcs XLC −0.13%	Cons. Discr. XLY −0.12%
Cons. Staples XLP −1.38%	Energy XLE +0.37%	Financials XLF +0.20%	Health Care XLV −1.93%
Industrials XLI +0.04%	Materials XLB +0.12%	Real Estate XLRE −0.49%	Utilities XLU −0.07%

In Focus

A soft CPI drove a relief rally 📈

Cooling June inflation and the start of bank earnings lifted risk assets

• Reports of a softer-than-expected June CPI sent Treasury yields lower and drew buying into tech and growth

• Chips rallied broadly — the SOX +2.5% as Nvidia H200 shipments to China began, with Nvidia +4.1% and Intel +4.5%

• SaaS and cloud surged too — CrowdStrike +12.1%, Zscaler +7.2%

IBM crashes 25% on a Q2 earnings shock 📉

Weak mainframe and software sales drove a big miss

• IBM missed Q2 expectations as mainframe and software sales disappointed

• Its own warning that "the AI boom is squeezing software budgets" deepened the drop

• Cloud and security names diverged, though (CRWD, ZS) — the hit looked IBM-specific

Inside the Ticker

Nvidia's H200 Shipments to China Begin — a Blocked Revenue Channel Reopens

Nvidia NVDA | $211.8 | 1D +4.1% 1W +7.5% 1M +3.4% 3M +12.0%

A path back into China for the H200

A US official said H200 shipments to China have begun; Nvidia +4.1%

• A US official confirmed shipments of Nvidia's H200 chips to China have begun — a limited reopening under export rules

• Nvidia rose +4.1%, joining a broad chip rally (Intel +4.5%, the SOX +2.5%)

• AI-chip sentiment improved alongside the soft-CPI risk-on tone

The question — China revenue vs export-policy risk

Whether the reopened channel lasts will steer the valuation

• H200 sales into China are a meaningful upside lever for datacenter revenue

• But the channel is hostage to US export policy — re-restriction risk remains

• What to watch: China volumes and when they hit the P&L, and whether Washington holds the line

This Week

ALL TIMES EASTERN (ET)

• Wed 7/15 JNJ earnings | est. EPS $2.85

• Wed 7/15 PPI

• Thu 7/16 TSM earnings | est. EPS $3.89

• Thu 7/16 NFLX earnings | est. EPS $0.79

• Thu 7/16 Retail Sales

• Fri 7/17 Industrial Production

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All investment decisions are your own responsibility.

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