Oil spikes — so why did only the Nasdaq hold up?

Today's Market

On the 8th (local time) the S&P 500 fell -0.3% and the Dow -1.1%, while the Nasdaq held up at +0.2%. An oil spike drove risk-off, and the indices split.

• Oil surged +5.8%, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up and reigniting inflation fears

• Oil-and-yield pressure sent the Dow -1.1% and VIX +4.8% (16.90) as risk aversion widened

• The Nasdaq stood alone on AI/chip tailwinds — next up: July 14 CPI and bank earnings

Market Data

S&P 500

7,482.71

▼0.28%

NASDAQ

25,870.65

▲0.20%

DOW

52,348.39

▼1.09%

VIX

16.90

▲4.77%

Sector Heat Map

SPY benchmark + 11 GICS sectors · 1-day

S&P 500 SPY −0.31%	Technology XLK +1.24%	Comm. Svcs XLC −1.41%	Cons. Discr. XLY −1.78%
Cons. Staples XLP −0.55%	Energy XLE +1.76%	Financials XLF −1.93%	Health Care XLV −1.30%
Industrials XLI −1.07%	Materials XLB −2.62%	Real Estate XLRE −1.65%	Utilities XLU −0.74%

In Focus

Oil +5.8% on Trump's Iran risk 🛢️

"Interim Iran peace deal is over" remark jolted oil and yields

• Reports of Trump signaling the interim Iran peace deal is "over" drove the oil spike

• The oil surge stoked inflation fears, lifting the 10-year Treasury yield +0.04pp

• Price-and-rate pressure weighed broadly on cyclicals, financials and other risk assets

AI/chips propped up the Nasdaq 📈

China's H200 approval and an Apple-Broadcom deal shielded tech

• China moving to allow purchases of Nvidia's H200 chips revived big-AI demand hopes

• Apple expanded its Broadcom partnership for US chip production — the chip sector rose +1.9%

• Even with yields rising, AI/chips defended the index, bucking the usual rate-sensitivity pattern

This Week

ALL TIMES EASTERN (ET)

• Tue 7/14 JPMorgan earnings | est. EPS $5.66

• Tue 7/14 Bank of America earnings | est. EPS $1.12

• Tue 7/14 Goldman Sachs earnings | est. EPS $14.30

• Tue 7/14 CPI

• Wed 7/15 Johnson & Johnson earnings | est. EPS $2.85

• Wed 7/15 PPI

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. All investment decisions are your own responsibility.

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